Early Numeracy Matters
The Greatest Predictor for Future Success
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I recently found myself thinking less like a teacher and more like a worried parent. My son is five and about to start school next year. He is not a naturally confident reader, and reading did not come easily. He has a diagnosis of ADHD, and learning to read required deliberate, systematic teaching grounded in the science of reading. We worked hard, consistently and patiently. While he may not be considered a strong reader, he now appears at least ready for reading at ‘big school’ as he would put it.
As school approaches, however, another concern has emerged. His number knowledge feels less secure. He can count, but sometimes hesitantly. He recognises numbers, but does not always manipulate them easily. I have begun to wonder if focusing so intently on reading instruction, I may have paid less attention to another foundation that may matter just as much.
That concern sent me back to the research. What I found suggests that early numeracy is not a secondary skill, nor a simple matter of readiness. It is one of the earliest and strongest predictors we have of later academic pathways, including success in secondary mathematics and entry into university. What most parents think about reading, could also apply to early numeracy.
The Long Reach of Early Numeracy
One of the most compelling bodies of evidence comes from longitudinal research led by Pamela Davis-Kean, Thurston Domina, Megan Kuhfeld and their colleagues. Using data from more than 1300 children followed from early childhood into adolescence and early adulthood, the researchers examined numeracy at around four and a half years of age, before formal schooling had begun.
Children who demonstrated stronger early numeracy were significantly more likely to enrol in advanced mathematics courses in secondary school and more likely to go on to university. Those with weaker early numeracy were more likely to be placed in lower mathematics tracks and were less likely to pursue further education. These relationships remained even after accounting for socioeconomic background, parental education and other early cognitive measures.
This work aligns with earlier research by Greg Duncan and colleagues, who analysed six major longitudinal datasets. Their findings showed that early mathematics achievement was a stronger predictor of later academic success than early reading or attention skills. In their analysis, early maths skills were roughly twice as predictive of later achievement as early literacy.
Together, these studies challenge the reassuring belief that early differences in mathematics will simply wash out over time. Instead, they suggest that early numeracy operates as a structural foundation, shaping future learning opportunities long before students make conscious academic choices.
Australian Evidence and the Persistence of Early Gaps
Australian evidence tells a similar story. Research synthesised by the Australian Education Research Organisation (AERO) shows that children who begin school with weaker numeracy skills are far more likely to remain behind their peers across primary and secondary schooling. National data from the Australian Early Development Census indicates that around one in five Australian children start school developmentally vulnerable in at least one domain, with language and cognitive skills, including numeracy, among the strongest predictors of later academic difficulty.
What is particularly striking is the persistence of these early gaps. AERO’s analyses suggest that without explicit and systematic instruction, early differences in numeracy tend to remain stable rather than narrow. Mathematics builds cumulatively. Each new concept depends on the secure acquisition of earlier ideas. When those early ideas are fragile, later learning becomes increasingly effortful.
For teachers, this reframes early numeracy as a matter of long-term equity rather than short-term readiness.
What Early Number Sense and Fluency Really Mean
Much of the debate about early mathematics stalls because terms like number sense and fluency are used imprecisely. Australian mathematics educators and researchers, including Toni Hatten-Roberts, have argued that clarity matters. In the early years, number sense reflects a child’s understanding of numbers as quantities, their ability to recognise relationships between numbers, and their capacity to reason about those relationships without relying exclusively on procedural counting.
Fluency develops from this understanding. It refers to the ability to work with numbers accurately and efficiently, with reduced cognitive effort. This is not about speed for its own sake. Drawing on cognitive load theory, Hatten-Roberts explains that fluent recall and processing of basic number knowledge frees working memory, allowing students to engage more deeply with reasoning, explanation and problem solving.
This aligns with a broader research base showing that conceptual understanding and fluency are not competing priorities. Each supports the other. When one is neglected, mathematical learning becomes fragile.
A Parent’s Reflection, a Teacher’s Responsibility
As a parent, this research has prompted some uncomfortable reflection. I was intentional about teaching reading because I knew my son would not acquire it easily without explicit instruction. Numeracy, by contrast, felt less urgent and more likely to develop naturally. The evidence suggests that this assumption may be misplaced.
As a teacher, this tension feels familiar. Some students arrive at school having received careful, systematic support in reading or writing, while their mathematical knowledge has been left largely to chance. The research suggests this imbalance matters. Early numeracy deserves the same intentionality, clarity and instructional care that literacy has increasingly received.
The broader lesson is not about individual parenting decisions. It is about how early education systems value mathematics. The foundations of mathematical thinking are laid early, often before anyone identifies a child as struggling. If we care about long-term outcomes and equity, that work must begin early.
Early numeracy is not a minor detail in the story of education. It is one of its opening chapters.
References
Davis-Kean, P. E., Domina, T., Kuhfeld, M., Ellis, A., & Gershoff, E. T. (2021). It matters how you start: Early numeracy mastery predicts high school math course-taking and college attendance. Infant and Child Development, 31(2).
Duncan, G. J., Dowsett, C. J., Claessens, A., Magnuson, K., Huston, A. C., Klebanov, P., Pagani, L. S., Feinstein, L., Engel, M., Brooks-Gunn, J., Sexton, H., Duckworth, K., & Japel, C. (2007). School readiness and later achievement. Developmental Psychology, 43(6),
Australian Education Research Organisation. Which skills are important for future literacy and numeracy.
Australian Early Development Census. National report.
Toni Hatten-Roberts. Science of maths and the importance of fluency. Think Forward Educators.